题　目：Early warning Systems for natural hazards: The fundamentals

主讲人：Professor Tad Murty  University of Ottawa

时　间：6月2日下午3:00—5:30

地　点：主楼418

主讲人简介：

　　Department of Civil Engineering, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada.
——Editor, Natural Hazards, an international scientific journal published by Springer in the Netherlands.
——Born and early education in India
——Ph.D. In Meteorology& Oceanography, University of Chicago, USA
——Former Director of the Australian National Tidal Facility
——Former Director of the South Pacific sea level and climate Change Monitoring project
——At present, Adjunct Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada
——Specialized in the mathematical modelling of natural hazards under climate change with applications to early warning systems
——Consultant to the World Meteorological Organization( WMO ) in Geneva and to the Inter-Governmental Oceanographic Commission ( IOC ) of UNESCO in Paris, for more than three decades on natural hazards
——Most recently edited the storm surge guide for the WMO.
——Published about 400 peer reviewed scientific papers and about 100 other papers in proceedings of conferences, technical reports, internal departmental reports  etc
——Authored, co-authored and edited 20 books
——Received several national and international awards

内容简介：

　　Natural hazards can be broadly grouped into three types: ( A ). Permanent, ( B ). Evanescent and ( C ). Episodic. Hazards that fit into the permanent category are tides, wind waves and climate change.Evanescent hazards are slow and gradual and have no clearly identifiable begining and no clearly defined ending. On the otherhand, episodic hazards have a clear begining and clear ending. Whereas science at best can only provide probabilistic forecasts, for various natural hazards, the managers and public have difficulty dealing with these and they prefer deterministic  predictions, which are difficult to provide.