题目：Disconfirmation Effect on Online Rating Behavior: A Dynamic Analysis
主讲人：谭勇 教授（美国华盛顿大学）
时间：2015.7.15（周三）上午10:00
地点：主楼317
主讲人简介：
    谭勇教授是美国华盛顿大学福斯特商学院信息和运营管理Neal and Jan Dempsey讲席教授，清华大学长江学者讲座教授，《信息系统研究》（Information Systems Research）资深编辑（Senior Editor），《管理信息系统期刊》(Journal of Management Information Systems)编委，《电子商务研究期刊》（Journal of Electronic Commerce Research）资深编辑。现从事电子商务，大数据，社会传媒，网络经济，信息系统等方面的研究。在《Management Science》,《Information Systems Research》,《MIS Quarterly》等国际顶尖期刊上发表多篇论文。曾获多项学术和教学奖励，包括信息系统协会最佳论文奖,Lex N. Gamble电子商务研究杰出奖，杰出博导奖等。于2007年被邀请至运筹学和管理学研究协会年会（INFORMS）做关于社会网络研究方法的主题报告。多年担任《管理科学》（Management Science）等国际顶尖期刊副编辑。是运筹学和管理学研究协会2010年信息系统和技术分会共同主席和2012年信息系统部主席，以及2014年信息技术和系统研讨会共同主席。指导和培养的博士生现在卡内基梅隆大学，普渡大学，印第安纳大学等著名高校任教，和在微软等著名企业从事研究开发工作。
内容简介：
    This research studies the effect of “disconfirmation”—the discrepancy between the expected and experienced quality of the same product—on the behavior of consumers leaving product reviews in an online setting. Specifically, we posit that an individual’s pre-purchase expectation is driven by the product ratings she observes and the credibility of the review system she perceives at the time of purchases. Upon product consumption, the individual obtains post-purchase evaluation and uses this information to confirm/disconfirm with her expectation. We extend the Bayesian learning framework to model the individual perception of the system credibility as how closely the ex-ante expectation matches the ex-post evaluation. Incorporating such dynamic perception in raters’ decisions allows us to better understand the chance of consumer engagement in sharing product experience over time. We estimate the proposed model using a rich data set comprising compete purchasing and rating activities made by 361 individuals on an e-commerce website. Our results show that consumer participation in leaving product reviews is subject to the disconfirmation effect. The further an individual’s post-purchase evaluation deviates from her pre-purchase expectation, the more likely she is to express her own opinions about the product. Our results also show that online consumers tend to be less active with respect to posting reviews as they perceive the system to be more precise over time. From simulations, we highlight 1) the dissimilar effects of disconfirmation and experienced quality on consumer rating behavior; 2) various evolutionary patterns of product ratings over time; and 3) the effect of fake, inflated ratings on subsequent rating entries.


（主办：管理工程系）