题 目：A Method to Measure Production Capacity Loss Due to the 2011 Tohoku-oki Earthquake and Tsunami
主讲人：HIROKAZU TATANO教授(Kyoto University)
时 间：2013年11月10日（星期日）上午 9:00
地 点：主楼241会议室
主讲人简介：
Dr. Hirokazu Tatano is a professor at Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Japan. He is currently serving as a vice-director of Disaster Prevention Research Institute in charge of public relations. From September 2010, he is serving a role of Vise President of International Society of Integrated Disaster Risk Management (IDRiM Society). He received his M.Sc. and Ph.D. in civil engineering from Kyoto University.
内容简介：
This research aims to propose a method for estimating production capacity in industrial sectors damaged by natural disaster and to apply that method to the case of the Great East Japan Earthquake. Production capacity is fundamental information required to gain an understanding of economic losses caused by supply shock. Focusing on the fact that data on past disasters have revealed that the main causes of capacity losses were damage to production facilities and disruption of lifeline systems, this paper proposes a method of capacity estimation that considers these two factors. To achieve the quantitative estimation of production capacity, functional fragility curves considering the relationship between production capacity and earthquake ground motion and lifeline resilience factors are adopted in order to take into account different types of hazards, while actual recovery curves are considered mainly for damaged facilities. Through the application of this method to this case study of natural disaster, production capacity in various industrial sectors is estimated and the estimated capacities in the manufacturing sectors are then compared with the corresponding index of industrial production. The results demonstrate that the estimated values are close to the actual production indices in the overall manufacturing sector and many of individual sectors.