题 目：Firm-Level and Industry-Level Bullwhip Effects in U.S. Economy: Theory and Empirical Support
主讲人：岳晓航博士(美国威斯康辛大学密尔沃基校园)
时 间：2013年6月17日（星期一）下午2:00
地 点：主楼418会议室
主讲人简介：
    美国威斯康辛大学密尔沃基校园Lubar商学院副教授（终身教职）、博士，长期从事供应链管理、制造系统协调与设计、运作优化与信息披露等。美国供应链管理协会、管理科学及运筹学协会和运营管理协会会员，担任《Production and Operations Management》（UT Dallas 24种管理学顶级期刊，运作管理方向顶级期刊）编委。已在《Production and Operations Management》、《IIE Transactions》、《OMEGA: An International Journal of Management Science》、《European Journal of Operational Research》和《International Journal of Production Economics》等国际知名SCI刊源上发表论文30余篇。现为Operations Research(OR)、IIE Transactions(IIE)、Production & Operations Management (POMS)、Journal of Operations Management (JOM)等多个国际知名期刊的审稿人。
内容简介：
    Theoretical studies of bullwhip effect (BWE) in supply chains have focused on models of a single firm making its ordering decisions based on its own demand history. On the other hand, in an industry that has several firms, a firm’s demand in a period may be influenced not only by its own demand history but also by that of the industry and empirical data suggest that. This paper examines BWE when a firm’s demand in a period is correlated with its own demand (auto correlation) and with the industry demand in the previous period (cross correlation). Our analysis shows that the sign and magnitude of the cross correlation affect BWE at both firm and industry levels. Furthermore, cross correlation may have opposite effects on BWE at these two levels, which may partly explain the mixed observations of BWE at firm and industry levels. Results from an extensive empirical study generally support the theoretical predictions of our model.