题 目：A dynamic stochastic portfolio model for optimizing crop acreage and soil natural capital under multiple risks
主讲人：从荣刚 博士（瑞典隆德大学环境与气候研究中心 博士后 研究员）
时 间：2013年3月13日（周三） 上午 10：30
地 点：主楼六层会议室
主讲人简介：
    从荣刚，中科院管理学博士，瑞典隆德大学环境与气候研究中心研究员。瑞典农业经济中心访问学者，德国勃兰登堡理工大学访问科学家。在资源与环境经济学领域国内外学术期刊发表论文三十余篇，著作二部，任International Journal of Advancements in Computing Technology, Journal of Next Generation Information Technology等国际杂志的编委，欧洲农业经济学家学会会员，欧洲环境与资源经济学家学会会员，中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会会员。曾为中国石油公司，国家电网公司等企业进行战略咨询服务。
内容简介：
    Ecologists have long argued that biodiversity is important for stability and resilience of ecosystems, and hence can provide natural insurance. In this article we investigate whether conservation of arable soil biodiversity could be an effective strategy for controlling agricultural risks. We do this by constructing a dynamic stochastic portfolio model for optimizing crop acreage and the stock of soil organic carbon (a proxy for soil biodiversity) under multiple risks. The approach builds on portfolio theory, crop production functions and probability simulations using Copula methods. The model takes into account weather risk, market risk and the state transition of soil carbon. The model and results shed new light on crop planning and soil management in the face of agricultural risks. First, over 70% of crop production risk can be reduced at the expense of 30% of revenue by diversifying acreage over as few as four crops, implying a “70-30” rule in respect of the asymmetry between risk and revenue; second, conservation (investing in soil carbon) and convergence (reducing the variance of soil carbon) are two potentially important risk management strategies for farmers in a dynamic context; and finally active management of soil carbon can both increase farm profit and reduce agricultural risk in the future.