题目： Changes in Global trade patterns contradict global mitigation efforts

　　主讲人： Laixiang Sun (Professor of University of Maryland)　

　　时   间：2018年06月13日（周三）下午15:30

　　地   点：12BET 主楼六层

　　主讲人简介：　

　　孙来祥教授现任美国马里兰大学行为与社会科学学院地理经济学教授，兼任伦敦大学亚非学院金融管理系教授，北京大学光华12BET资深客座研究员，奥地利维也纳国际应用系统论研究所（IIASA）资深研究员，中国科学院地理科学和资源研究所客座教授。于2010年2月当选为英国社会科学院院士 (Fellow/Academician of the Academy of Social Sciences, the UK)。2005年6月获中国科学院授予的“海外杰出华人学者”荣誉称号。1987年参加起草《1988-1995年我国改革规划纲要》获1988年度孙冶方经济学奖（北京大学课题组）。孙来祥教授已在国际著名学术刊物和其它学术载体发表研究论文140余篇，学术专著4部。孙来祥教授发表研究论文的国际著名学术刊物包括《自然-通讯》、《美国科学院院刊》、《环境科学与技术》、《应用能源》、《气侯变化》、《工业组织学国际学刊》、《牛津大学经济学与统计学学刊》、《比较经济学学刊》、《世界发展》、《区域科学学刊》、《公司治理》、《生态经济学》、《工业生态学刊》等。

　　内容简介：

　　The proponents of “gains-from-trade hypothesis” contend that global trade improves resource allocation and leads to greater capacity for environmental management. The opponents argue that the competition mechanism of the international market pushes the production of resource intensive products into countries with lower cost of resource use, lower environmental standards and less efficient resource-use technologies. In this research, we address the above debate from a different angle: Whether observed changes in global trade patterns help or hinder the global efforts on climate change mitigation and environmental protection. We employ a global Multi-Regional Input–Output (MRIO) approach to quantify the impacts of changes in global trade patterns on carbon emissions, land use and water consumption between 2004 and 2011. The results show that if the trade patterns in 2004 had been remaining, the global CO2 emissions and water consumption in 2011 would be 669 million tons (2.7%) and 30 billion m3 (0.9%) lower, but the global land use would be 14 million hectares (0.2%) higher than the actual figures, meaning that trade patterns became less carbon and water efficient but more land efficient between 2004 and 2011.