题    目： Decision-making in safety investment interval: An improved basic safety investment decision model
主讲人：赵秋红
时    间：2017年12月14日 上午8：30
地    点：主楼216房间

主讲人介绍：
       赵秋红，女，北京航空航天大学经济12BET教授，博士生导师，北京航空航天大学学术委员会委员，中国系统工程学会常务理事、副秘书长、应急管理专业委员会主任委员、服务系统工程分会副主任委员；中国运筹学会行为运作管理分会常务理事；中国物流学会理事；城市安全运行与应急保障北京市国际科技合作基地主任。赵秋红教授主要从事系统优化、物流与供应链管理、安全与风险管理等领域的理论与实践研究工作，先后主持5项国家自然科学基金项目（1项在研），已发表SCI 源期刊论文20余篇，出版论著5部。

内容介绍：
       Safety investment is a periodically work and it affects the safety condition of the company significantly. We consider the safety investment decision problem from a perspective of investment interval. Through describing safety investment amount and accident probability as a function of investment interval, an improved basic safety investment decision model is proposed. The model shows that the positive effect of safety investment amount on safety performance only exists when investment interval is shorter than a certain value. This finding explains the inconclusive results on the causal relationship between safety investment amount and safety performance found by many previous researches. The numerical analysis indicates that a short-term decision helps to reduce the accident probability. The failure frequency of the company’s safety system decreases the optimal investment interval significantly. The risk rating of the company does not affect the company’s safety investment decision. While the higher the loss brought by an accident is, the shorter the optimal investment interval and the lower the accident probability. The government can reduce accident probability through increasing the penalty cost, which is included in the accident loss. The findings help the company to make decision in safety investment from a novel perspective.

（承办：管理工程系，科研与学术交流中心）