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【明理讲堂2022年第53期】11-16西南财经大学陈梓麟副教授: Presidential Economic Approval Rating and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns

时间:11月16日(星期三)下午14:30-16:00

地点:腾讯会议501-724-643

报告人:西南财经大学陈梓麟副教授

主讲人简介:

陈梓麟,西南财经大学金融学院副教授,主要研究领域为实证资产定价、行为金融和机器学习。论文发表或接收于《Journal of Financial Economics》,《Journal of Banking and Finance》,《Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control》等国际期刊。

报告内容简介:

We construct a monthly presidential economic approval rating (PEAR) index from 1981 to 2019, by averaging ratings on the president's handling of the economy across various national polls. In the cross-section, stocks with high betas to changes in the PEAR index significantly underperform those with low betas by 1.00% per month in the future, on a risk-adjusted basis. The low PEAR beta premium persists up to one year, and is present in various sub-samples and even in other G7 countries. PEAR beta dynamically reveals a firm's perceived alignment to the incumbent president's economic policies and investors seem to misprice such an alignment.

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